And I Think It’s Gonna be a Long, Long Time
“Mars ain’t the kind of place to raise your kids””
– Bernie Taupin (Elton John)
As we head into the back half of the year, one of the bigger news headlines this quarter has been the landmark initial public offering (IPO) of Space Exploration Technologies (“SpaceX”). Much like the massive rocket launches the company is known for, the market’s reception was met with immense hype and retail enthusiasm. However, behind the pomp and circumstance lies a structural shift that forces us to look behind the curtain of how modern capital markets operate. To be clear, we are not looking to debate or justify the valuation of SpaceX as an investment – we are simply laying out the facts of how new IPOs get included in major benchmarks and what that means for passive investing. We discuss the implications of index inclusion through a unique lens and how the broader structural market shifts may impact your portfolio.
Markets
Following a volatile opening quarter, global capital markets showed renewed directionality in the second quarter, driven heavily by optimism around geopolitical tensions easing as well as optimism around recent IPO deals. The S&P 500 rose +15.2% this quarter as technology and defense-adjacent sectors skewed results to the upside. The tech-heavy NASDAQ 100 Index rose +27.5%, brushing aside interest rate anxieties. Domestic small cap equities, as measured by the S&P 600 Index rose +19.3%. International markets, as measured by the MSCI ACWI-ex US Index returned +13.6%. In fixed income markets, the Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index returned +0.7% as the Federal Reserve left benchmark rates unchanged and signaled potential rate hikes in the near-term. Fed policymakers signaled that while the labor market is normalizing, recent inflation data around energy and resilient consumer demand warrants an extended pause. The 10-year US Treasury yield closed the quarter at 4.47%. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil continued its volatile path for the quarter as news out of Iran continued to develop, closing at $70 per barrel to end the quarter. Meanwhile, gold consolidated its historic gains from earlier in the year, falling by -14.1% in the quarter to finish at $4,008 per ounce.
The Active Hand of Passive Investing
An interesting structural development unfolded during the quarter as several prominent index providers (Nasdaq, S&P, FTSE Russell, among others) considered bending their rules specifically to fasttrack SpaceX into their flagship benchmarks. Historically, newly public enterprises have been required to undergo a strict “seasoning period,” often spanning several quarters, before earning a spot in a major index. Additionally, some indices only allow companies to be included if a certain percentage of their total shares are “floating,” meaning, available to trade in the open market. Finally, some indices require companies to be consistently profitable before inclusion. Table 1 shows how major index providers are handling the SpaceX IPO. In short, most providers are adjusting their criteria to allow for inclusion of SpaceX, while S&P Dow Jones (provider of the S&P 500 Index) has held the line:
Table 1: How major index providers are handling the SpaceX IPO:
| Index Provider | Approach | Details |
|---|---|---|
| S&P Dow Jones | Conservative | Requires 12 months of market ‘seasoning’ and positive profitability. No fast-track entry permitted |
| MSCI | Moderate | Accommodated fast-track entry for massive IPOs, but refused to alter criteria for specific events, and relies on long-standing rules unchanged since 2007 |
| FTSE Russell | Moderate | Accommodative fast-track entry (within roughly five trading days) but maintains strict discipline by only weighting the actual available free float |
| CRSP US Total Market | Moderate | Accommodative fast-track entry (within roughly five trading days) |
| Nasdaq | Aggressive | Fast-track entry within 15 trading days. Removed minimum float requirements and introduced a multiplier that can artificially inflate a low-float stock’s weighting by up to three times |
Source: Ian Wenik, Citywire
The decision to change long-standing rules to capture a high-profile company is a discretionary, active choice made by a committee of human decision-makers. This fast-track inclusion forces trillions of dollars of passive, index-tracking capital to immediately buy shares at a potential post-IPO premium, regardless of underlying fundamental valuations. This phenomenon underscores the reality that “passive” investing is inherently governed by active architectural choices. We view these developments with a healthy dose of skepticism. When the rules of the game are modified to chase momentum, the risk is ultimately borne by the systematic investor who assumes their exposure is unbiased.
Outlook and Investment Strategy
Is the downturn in hyper-growth names overdue? Perhaps. Our overarching investment thesis remains centered on corporate quality, earnings durability, and absolute valuation discipline. The concentration of capital into a handful of generational mega-caps has created a stratified market environment. Although headline indices appear robust, beneath the surface lies a stark divergence between companies trading on speculative future growth opportunities and those producing tangible, near-term cash flows. Our strategy deliberately favors the latter. We believe that chasing hot names at the peak of their public market entry represents an asymmetrical risk that is misaligned with our disciplined approach.
Our stock selection continues to maintain a structural emphasis on high-quality businesses with defensive moat characteristics and clean balance sheets. We believe analysis of management, cash flows, leverage, and competitive advantage always matter in the long run. In our fixed income portfolios, we continue to seek opportunities in high quality corporate bonds and US treasuries given that the Fed appears committed to keeping interest rates higher for longer.
Closing Thoughts
The allure of the new, the bold, and the flashy will always capture the public’s attention. However, we remain grounded in time-tested investment basics including portfolio diversification, balance, and patience. During periods of market volatility, value changes hands from who act out of hype and fear to those who see an opportunity to stick to fundamentals.
We remain grateful for the trust you place in Regency Wealth Management. Thank you for allowing us to be on your financial team and referring us to those you care about most.
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Regency Wealth Management is a SEC Registered Investment Advisor managing over $600 million for families and small institutional investors. Regency was founded in 2004, is headquartered in New Jersey, and serves clients across the country.